Projected Starters

The Florida Gators are just one victory away from matching the program’s single-season wins record, set by the 2013–14 squad that finished 36–3 with a 30-game winning streak before falling to Connecticut in the national semifinal. This year’s team has strung together 11 straight wins and 17 of its last 18, with the only setback in that stretch being an 88–83 loss at Georgia on Feb. 25.

Against Auburn in the Final Four, Florida overcame a sluggish first half in which they trailed by eight. After the break, the Gators flipped the script—shooting 50% from the field and bringing a level of physicality that had been missing early. Defensively, they limited the Tigers to just 8-for-24 shooting in the second half, including only five makes inside the arc, after conceding 13 such baskets before halftime. Florida outscored Auburn 41–27 in the period to secure the win. Still, as they prepare for Houston, the margin for error shrinks. Falling behind by eight against the Cougars’ elite defense and relentless rebounding would be far more punishing.

Head coach Todd Golden, now 75–33 in three seasons at UF, is aiming to become just the seventh coach in NCAA history to capture a national championship before turning 40.

At the center of Florida’s postseason surge is Walter Clayton Jr., who has been nothing short of spectacular. Through five NCAA Tournament games, he’s averaging 24.6 points while shooting 50% overall, 48.7% from three (19-for-39), and 90.4% at the free-throw line (38-for-42). Stretching back eight games, including the SEC Tournament where he earned MVP honors, Clayton’s averages remain elite: 23.1 points, 49.1% shooting, 49.2% from deep, and 88% from the stripe. His brilliance has carried the Gators, but Houston’s defensive schemes will focus on forcing the ball out of his hands.

Alijah Martin added to his NCAA Tournament résumé with his ninth career win in the event. After reaching the Final Four with Florida Atlantic in 2023, he’s now added five more victories in his graduate-transfer season at UF. His two highlight-reel dunks in the second half against Auburn were among the defining moments of the game, as he finished with 17 points, three rebounds, and a +10 plus/minus.

The third member of Florida’s senior guard trio, Will Richard, had a quieter outing with seven points and six rebounds. Still, his three-point play early in the second half—when the Gators trailed by nine—ignited an 11–0 run that shifted momentum. Backup guard Denzel Aberdeen contributed two points in 15 minutes, though turnovers limited his impact as Florida tightened its rotation.

Inside, Florida’s four-man frontcourt rotation received a stern halftime message from Golden and associate head coach Carlin Hartman after a lackluster opening 20 minutes. The group responded. Rueben Chinyelu anchored the defense with nine rebounds, the most in the game. Alex Condon, despite scoring just one point on 0-for-5 shooting with three turnovers, improved defensively after halftime. Thomas Haugh chipped in 12 points, six rebounds, and three blocks, while 7-foot-1 Micah Handlogten provided valuable minutes off the bench.

The Houston Cougars opened the season with some early stumbles, dropping three of their first seven contests. Those defeats came against Auburn at Houston’s NBA arena, and in overtime matchups with Alabama and San Diego State during a Thanksgiving tournament in Las Vegas. After that stretch, Houston went on a tear, losing only once more—a home overtime setback to Texas Tech on Feb. 1. Since then, the Cougars have rattled off 18 straight victories, the longest active streak in the nation, powered by a defense unlike anything the Florida Gators have faced, even in the grind of the SEC.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson, now in his 11th season at UH, has rebuilt the program after earlier career setbacks tied to NCAA violations and academic issues that ended his tenures at Oklahoma and Indiana. At 69 years old, Sampson is aiming to become the oldest coach to ever capture a national championship. Over his 36-year career, which began with stops at Montana Tech and Washington State, he has amassed 798 wins, including a 298–83 record with the Cougars.

Statistically, Houston’s defense is elite. They rank third nationally in effective field-goal percentage allowed (44.8%), fifth in two-point defense (44.3%), 17th in three-point defense (30.3%), and fifth in blocked shots (15.7%).

On offense, the Cougars shoot 48% inside the arc, but their real strength lies on the glass. They rank 10th in offensive rebounding (37%), which often creates second-chance looks and open threes. From deep, they are the No. 1 team in the country, converting at a blistering 39.9%. Their style is deliberate—they play at one of the slowest tempos in Division I (slower than all but five teams) and rarely turn the ball over (14.2% turnover rate, 20th nationally). That efficiency ensures they almost always generate a quality shot or a second opportunity.

Only four opponents managed to score 70 or more points in regulation against Houston this season. Most recently, they held Duke, the nation’s top-rated offense, to just 39.6% shooting overall, including 38.9% inside the arc.