Match Preview

Chase Center (capacity 18,064) in San Francisco is home to the NBA Golden State Warriors 

SETUP:

No. 4 Florida and No. 12 Maryland are set to clash in the NCAA Tournament’s West Region third round. The top-seeded Gators earned their spot with a commanding 95-69 win over 16-seed Norfolk State, followed by a narrow 77-75 victory over 8-seed Connecticut—the reigning two-time national champions—both games held in Raleigh, North Carolina. Maryland, which finished second in the Big Ten regular season, advanced from Seattle after defeating 13-seed Grand Canyon 81-49 and edging 12-seed Colorado State 72-71 with a buzzer-beater on Saturday night. The winner of this matchup will move on to Saturday’s regional final for an “Elite Eight” showdown against either 3-seed Texas Tech (27-8) or 10-seed Arkansas (22-13), who meet in the later West Region game Thursday.

SERIES:

Florida and Maryland have faced off four times, three of those meetings occurring since 2002, with the series currently tied at 2-2. Their most recent encounter was on December 12, 2021, during the Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center. In that game, Donta Scott hit an “off-balance, awkward-angle bank shot” with 16 seconds remaining to give the Terrapins a 70-68 lead. Florida’s Tyree Appleby, a fifth-year point guard, missed a potential game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer. Appleby tallied all 15 of his points in the second half, sinking five shots from beyond the arc. Graduate guard Phlandrous Fleming contributed a double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds.

ETC:

Florida holds a 9-2 all-time record in Sweet 16 appearances, including a streak of eight straight wins in this round dating back to 1999.

Tale of the Tape

The Gators

Florida has returned to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017, when the program made a run to the Elite Eight before falling to SEC rival South Carolina, just one win shy of the Final Four. This year’s squad enters the round riding an eight-game winning streak and has claimed victory in 14 of its last 15 contests. Seven of those eight most recent wins—excluding the opening-round blowout of Norfolk State—were against Quadrant 1 opponents. While the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) may no longer carry the same weight, Florida’s recent stretch has featured elite-level competition, including Sunday’s dramatic win over defending champion UConn. The Gators are currently favored by 6.5 points.

In the latest KenPom.com  rankings, Florida slipped from first to second in offensive efficiency and maintained its 11th-place standing on defense. Though the team is often praised for its offensive firepower, their defensive effort against UConn—holding the Huskies to 37.5% shooting and just 8-of-29 from beyond the arc—reinforced their national rankings: fifth in effective field-goal percentage defense (45.5), 17th in 2-point defense (46.2), and fifth in 3-point defense (29.3). That defensive intensity will be tested again against a Maryland offense that excels in those same metrics.

Free-throw shooting was a concern in the UConn game, as Florida hit only 64.7% from the line, well below its season average of nearly 72%. The second half was particularly shaky, with the Gators converting just 15 of 27 attempts (55.6%). Fortunately, those missed opportunities didn’t cost them the game.

Walter Clayton Jr., the team’s standout point guard and first-team All-American, overcame a tough opening half against UConn’s aggressive ball-screen defense. He responded with a stellar second half, going 4-for-7 from the field, a perfect 3-for-3 from deep—including two clutch late-game shots—and 4-of-5 from the stripe, finishing with a game-high 23 points. Over five postseason games (three in the SEC Tournament and two in the NCAA Tournament), Clayton is averaging 21.6 points while shooting 47.8% overall, 51.1% from three (22-of-43), and 88.0% from the free-throw line (22-of-25).

Alijah Martin played a pivotal role in the first half against UConn, scoring 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting, including two 3-pointers. He also delivered four critical points in the final moments—highlighted by a put-back dunk off a missed free throw and two pressure-packed free throws with 21.6 seconds left.

Will Richard, who had a quiet first half with just two points and no made field goals, came alive after the break. He ended the game with 15 points, including a pair of key threes, along with six rebounds, three assists, and two steals. Florida’s senior trio is averaging a combined 51.8 points across the five postseason games.

All-SEC forward Alex Condon contributed five points against UConn and struggled at the line (3-of-8), but added seven rebounds and four assists. He’ll face another physical challenge against Maryland’s strong frontcourt. Center Rueben Chinyelu, known for his toughness, must avoid foul trouble—he picked up three in the first half against UConn and fouled out in the SEC semifinal versus Alabama. His 13.9% offensive rebounding rate ranks 44th nationally.

Off the bench, Thomas Haugh (9.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg) was efficient inside, going 5-of-6 on 2-point attempts in Raleigh, though he missed all seven of his 3-point tries. He also grabbed 16 rebounds and dished out seven assists. Backup center Micah Handlogten (2.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg) went scoreless against UConn, missing all three of his shots, but pulled down four boards. He posted a minus-4 in the box score—one of only two Gators in the negative. The other was reserve guard Denzel Aberdeen (7.9 ppg), who logged three points on three attempts in 14 minutes and finished at minus-1.

The Terrapins

Maryland center Derik Queen

Maryland’s starting lineup—nicknamed the “Crab Five”—has logged over 81% of the team’s minutes since Big Ten play began, a figure roughly 10% higher than Florida’s starters. Now in his third year at the helm, head coach Kevin Willard has compiled a 65-38 record with the Terrapins, rebounding strongly from last season’s 16-17 finish. In his first year (2022–23), Willard led Maryland to the NCAA Tournament and a first-round win. Prior to joining the program, he spent 12 seasons at Seton Hall, guiding the Pirates to six NCAA appearances between 2016 and 2022, though his record there was 1-6. At Maryland, he’s now 3-1 in tournament play.

The Terrapins favor an uptempo style, which could either benefit Florida or pose problems if Maryland—ranked 23rd nationally in 3-point shooting at 37.5%—finds rhythm in transition. Ball security is a strength, with a turnover rate of just 14.3% (19th in the country) and a steal rate of only 6.8% (third nationally). Offensive rebounding is less of a factor for them, recovering just 31% of their missed shots (149th overall).

Defensively, Maryland ranks 21st in effective field-goal percentage allowed (46.8%), 15th in 3-point defense (30.2%), and 52nd in 2-point defense (47.6%). They also force turnovers on 20% of opponent possessions (43rd nationally). At the line, the team converts nearly 75% of its free throws.

Stat Highlights

Final Takeaway

Email Chris Harry at chrish@gators.ufl.edu